Product leasing: a strategy to allow manufacturers and customers to benefit from elongation of product life

International development means that the number of people who can be considered as consumers is projected to triple by 2030. This is good news but if we consume goods in the same way as people did in the 20th Century it will lead to an unsustainable rise in industrial greenhouse gas emissions and contribute towards material scarcities. The old axioms of maintaining profits by high turnover of low profit margins goods, and boosting demand by releasing new models needs to be reconsidered for a sustainable future. The key point is that people’s needs are met by using goods not just acquiring them. One way of reducing the demand for new goods is to use old ones for longer. This study looked at second hand car data and concluded that cars are scrapped when they have a low market value not when they are worn out. It follows that if the second hand value can be raised, cars could potentially be used for longer. One way of increasing the value of a second hand item to a business is to value it as a future profit generator as well as for its market value. A long term lease model has been considered and found to be potentially beneficial to both the supplier and customer

Product renovation and shared ownership: sustainable routes to satisfying the world's growing demand for goods

It has been estimated that by 2030 the number of people who are wealthy enough to be considered as middle class consumers will have tripled. This will have a dramatic impact on the demands for primary materials and energy. Much work has been carried out on sustainable ways of meeting the World’s energy demands and some work has been carried out on the sustainable production and consumption of goods. It has been estimated that with improvements in design and manufacturing it is possible to reduce the primary material requirements by 30% to produce the current demand for goods. Whilst this is a crucial step on the production side, there will still be a doubling of primary material requirements by the end of the century because of an absolute rise in demand for goods and services. It is therefore clear that the consumption of products must also be explored. This is a key areas of research for the UK INDEMAND centre, which is investigating ways of reducing the UK’s industrial energy demand and demand for energy intensive materials. Our ongoing work shows that two strategies would result in considerable reductions in the demand for primary materials: product longevity and using goods more intensively (which may requires increased durability). Product longevity and durability are not new ideas, but ones that can be applied across a raft of goods as methods of reducing the consumption of materials. With long life products there is a potential risk of outdated design and obsolescence, consequently there is a need to ensure upgradability and adaptability are incorporated at the design stage. If products last longer, then the production of new products can be diverted to emerging markets rather than the market for replacement goods. There are many goods which are only used occasionally; these goods do not normally wear out. The total demand for such could be drastically reduced if they were shared with other people. Sharing of goods has traditionally been conducted between friends or by hiring equipment. The use of modern communication systems and social media could enable the development of sharing co-ops and swap spaces that will increase the utilisation of goods and hence reduce the demand for new goods. This could also increase access to a range of goods for those on low incomes. From a series of workshops it has been found that the principal challenges are sociological rather than technological. This paper contains a discussion of these challenges and explores possible futures where these two strategies have been adopted. In addition, the barriers and opportunities that these strategies offer for consumers and businesses are identified, and areas where government policy could be instigated to bring about change are highlighted

X-ray diffraction from bone employing annular and semi-annular beams

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.There is a compelling need for accurate, low cost diagnostics to identify osteo-tissues that are associated with a high risk of fracture within an individual. To satisfy this requirement the quantification of bone characteristics such as 'bone quality' need to exceed that provided currently by densitometry. Bone mineral chemistry and microstructure can be determined from coherent x-ray scatter signatures of bone specimens. Therefore, if these signatures can be measured, in vivo, to an appropriate accuracy it should be possible by extending terms within a fracture risk model to improve fracture risk prediction.In this preliminary study we present an examination of a new x-ray diffraction technique that employs hollow annular and semi-annular beams to measure aspects of 'bone quality'. We present diffractograms obtained with our approach from ex vivo bone specimens at Mo Kα and W Kα energies. Primary data is parameterized to provide estimates of bone characteristics and to indicate the precision with which these can be determined.We acknowledge gratefully the funding provided by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) grant number EP/K020196/

Unveiling the planet population at birth

The radius distribution of small, close-in exoplanets has recently been shown to be bimodal. The photoevaporation model predicted this bimodality. In the photoevaporation scenario, some planets are completely stripped of their primordial H/He atmospheres, whereas others retain them. Comparisons between the photoevaporation model and observed planetary populations have the power to unveil details of the planet population inaccessible by standard observations, such as the core mass distribution and core composition. In this work, we present a hierarchical inference analysis on the distribution of close-in exoplanets using forward models of photoevaporation evolution. We use this model to constrain the planetary distributions for core composition, core mass, and initial atmospheric mass fraction. We find that the core-mass distribution is peaked, with a peak-mass of ∼4M⊕. The bulk core-composition is consistent with a rock/iron mixture that is ice-poor and ‘Earth-like’; the spread in core-composition is found to be narrow (⁠≲16 per cent variation in iron-mass fraction at the 2σ level) and consistent with zero. This result favours core formation in a water/ice poor environment. We find the majority of planets accreted a H/He envelope with a typical mass fraction of ∼4 per cent⁠; only a small fraction did not accrete large amounts of H/He and were ‘born-rocky’. We find four times as many super-Earths were formed through photoevaporation, as formed without a large H/He atmosphere. Finally, we find core-accretion theory overpredicts the amount of H/He cores would have accreted by a factor of ∼5, pointing to additional mass-loss mechanisms (e.g. ‘boil-off’) or modifications to core-accretion theory

Thermodynamic insights and assessment of the ‘circular economy’

This study analyses the effect on energy use of applying a wide range of circular economy approaches. By collating evidence on specific quantifiable approaches and then calculating and analyzing their combined full supply chain impacts through input-output analysis, it provides a more complete assessment of the overall potential scope for energy savings that these approaches might deliver than provided elsewhere. Assessment is conducted globally, across the EU-27 and in the UK. Overall, the identified opportunities have the potential to save 6%–11% of energy used to support economic activity, worldwide and in the EU, and 5%–8% in the UK. Their potential is equivalent to the total scope for other industrial energy efficiency savings. The potential savings are further divided into those due to sets of approaches relating to food waste, steel production, other materials production, product refurbishment, vehicle provision, construction and other equipment manufacture. Each of these sets of approaches can make a key contribution to the total savings that are possible. Complementary use of energy and exergy metrics illustrates the way in which energy use might change and for the first time provides indication that in most cases other energy efficiency measures are unlikely to be adversely affected by the circular economy approaches. Potential for savings in the energy embodied in each key product input to each major sector is assessed, enabling prioritization of the areas in which the circular economy approaches have the greatest scope for impact and identification of supply chains for which they are underrepresented

Thermodynamic insights and assessment of the ‘circular economy’

This study analyses the effect on energy use of applying a wide range of circular economy approaches. By collating evidence on specific quantifiable approaches and then calculating and analyzing their combined full supply chain impacts through input-output analysis, it provides a more complete assessment of the overall potential scope for energy savings that these approaches might deliver than provided elsewhere. Assessment is conducted globally, across the EU-27 and in the UK. Overall, the identified opportunities have the potential to save 6%–11% of energy used to support economic activity, worldwide and in the EU, and 5%–8% in the UK. Their potential is equivalent to the total scope for other industrial energy efficiency savings. The potential savings are further divided into those due to sets of approaches relating to food waste, steel production, other materials production, product refurbishment, vehicle provision, construction and other equipment manufacture. Each of these sets of approaches can make a key contribution to the total savings that are possible. Complementary use of energy and exergy metrics illustrates the way in which energy use might change and for the first time provides indication that in most cases other energy efficiency measures are unlikely to be adversely affected by the circular economy approaches. Potential for savings in the energy embodied in each key product input to each major sector is assessed, enabling prioritization of the areas in which the circular economy approaches have the greatest scope for impact and identification of supply chains for which they are underrepresented

Photoevaporation versus core-powered mass-loss: model comparison with the 3D radius gap

The extreme ultraviolet (EUV)/X-ray photoevaporation and core-powered mass-loss models are both capable of reproducing the bimodality in the sizes of small, close-in exoplanets observed by the Kepler space mission, often referred to as the ‘radius gap’. However, it is unclear which of these two mechanisms dominates the atmospheric mass-loss that is likely sculpting the radius gap. In this work, we propose a new method of differentiating between the two models, which relies on analysing the radius gap in 3D parameter space. Using models for both mechanisms, and by performing synthetic transit surveys we predict the size and characteristics of a survey capable of discriminating between the two models. We find that a survey of ≳5000 planets, with a wide range in stellar mass and measurement uncertainties at a ≲5 per cent level is sufficient. Our methodology is robust against moderate false positive contamination of ≲10 per cent⁠. We perform our analysis on two surveys (which do not satisfy our requirements): the California-KeplerSurvey and the Gaia–KeplerSurvey and find, unsurprisingly, that both data sets are consistent with either model. We propose a hypothesis test to be performed on future surveys that can robustly ascertain which of the two mechanisms formed the radius gap, provided one dominates over the other